Rest of Season Projection
ShaneCategoryTrey
91K ←23
4.50ERA →4.10
1.40WHIP →1.30
2–4W →3–5
0SV0
Current Season
ShaneCategoryTrey
57K ←5
4.48ERA →4.24
1.43WHIP ←1.53
2W ←1
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Shane Baz
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.72 +0.62 vs league with no luck excuse
Trey Gibson
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.258 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 6.58 is 0.67 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 12% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Shane Baz: 91 K / 4.50 ERA. Trey Gibson: 23 K / 4.10 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).