MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 19, 2026
Shane Bieber
TOR · P
Change to
Portrait of Steven Matz
Steven Matz
TB · P
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Too close to call.

They split your categories 22. Take whoever fills a bigger need.

Head-to-head
K
ERA
WHIP
W
SV n/a

Shane Bieber wins 2 (ERA, WHIP); Steven Matz wins 2 (K, W); SV n/a.

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Fastball Velolg 94.0 · higher = better
Shane Bieber
92.2
Steven Matz
93.3
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · higher = better
Shane Bieber
10.8%
Steven Matz
10.3%
Strikeout %lg 22.0% · higher = better
Shane Bieber
15.1%
Steven Matz
17.8%
Chase %lg 28.5% · higher = better
Shane Bieber
30.1%
Steven Matz
27.5%
Hard-Hit % Allowedlg 40.0% · lower = better
Shane Bieber
55.6%
Steven Matz
36.1%
Barrel % Allowedlg 8.0% · lower = better
Shane Bieber
14.3%
Steven Matz
13.0%
xwOBA Allowedlg .315 · lower = better
Shane Bieber
.477
Steven Matz
.366
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · earned-run quality
ERAlower is better
Shane Bieber
3.346.76
lg xERA 4.10
now 6.00
4.10
Steven Matz
3.346.76
lg xERA 4.10
now 4.67
5.21
WHIPlower is better
Shane Bieber
.9402.30
now 2.00
1.30
Steven Matz
.9402.30
now 1.24
1.37

Volume · rest of season
Strikeoutshigher is better
Shane Bieber
4060.60
now 6
44
Steven Matz
4060.60
now 35
45
Winshigher is better
Shane Bieber
.0008.40
now 0
00
Steven Matz
.0008.40
now 4
36

SV — not applicable. Both pitch out of the rotation.

If you already own them — trade angle
Hold · wait & seeShane Bieber — hold.conf 0.50
SellSteven Matz — sell.conf 0.90
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