MLB Daily DeltaWeek 19 · July 30, 2026
Portrait of Steven Matz
Steven Matz
TB · P
Change to
Yusei Kikuchi
LAA · P
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Yusei Kikuchi.

He projects to help you in more roto categories the rest of the way — strikeouts, ERA, and WHIP. Steven Matz’s box score looks better right now, but the luck-stripped projection flips it.

Head-to-head
K
ERA
WHIP
W
SV n/a

Yusei Kikuchi wins 3 categories (K, ERA, WHIP); Steven Matz wins 1 (W); SV n/a.

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Fastball Velolg 94.0 · higher = better
Steven Matz
93.3
Yusei Kikuchi
95.4
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · higher = better
Steven Matz
10.1%
Yusei Kikuchi
12.5%
Strikeout %lg 22.0% · higher = better
Steven Matz
17.4%
Yusei Kikuchi
23.2%
Chase %lg 28.5% · higher = better
Steven Matz
27.4%
Yusei Kikuchi
27.4%
Hard-Hit % Allowedlg 40.0% · lower = better
Steven Matz
36.2%
Yusei Kikuchi
42.6%
Barrel % Allowedlg 8.0% · lower = better
Steven Matz
12.6%
Yusei Kikuchi
8.5%
xwOBA Allowedlg .315 · lower = better
Steven Matz
.361
Yusei Kikuchi
.340
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · earned-run quality
ERAlower is better
Steven Matz
3.546.46
lg xERA 4.10
now 4.67
5.13
Yusei Kikuchi
3.546.46
lg xERA 4.10
now 5.81
4.19
WHIPlower is better
Steven Matz
1.101.72
now 1.24
1.37
Yusei Kikuchi
1.101.72
now 1.58
1.31

Volume · rest of season
Strikeoutshigher is better
Steven Matz
4047.60
now 35
38
Yusei Kikuchi
4047.60
now 33
42
Winshigher is better
Steven Matz
.0007
now 4
35
Yusei Kikuchi
.0007
now 0
00

SV — not applicable. Both pitch out of the rotation.

If you already own them — trade angle
SellSteven Matz — sell.conf 0.90
Hold · wait & seeYusei Kikuchi — hold.conf 0.55
Tweet