Rest of Season Projection
TristanCategoryZack
11HR ←10
28R →43
59RBI ←39
3SB →12
.239AVG ←.228
Current Season
TristanCategoryZack
4HR →6
11R →21
23RBI ←19
1SB →6
.237AVG →.259
What Each Player's System Trusts
Tristan Gray
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.305)
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 30% is stable and high — caps the floor
Zack Gelof
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.320 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.294 is 0.030 below the surface — regression coming
Tristan Gray: 11 HR / 28 R. Zack Gelof: 10 HR / 43 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).