90 PA · week 12
this weekHOLD
last week—
Jake Fraley
data as of June 13, 2026·week 12
ON THE 10-DAY IL
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (0.277); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 4AVG .194R 16RBI 13SB 8
Fraley is a hold — league average with no edge.
ROS projects HR 2 YTD → 4 ROS, AVG .232 YTD → .194 ROS, R 6 YTD → 16 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
Drivers
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.277)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo84.1 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−4.9 mphvs his norm —
57 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %21.4%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−18.6%vs his norm —
57 / 50 BBE
Barrel %8.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.8%vs his norm +4.0% ▲Barrel % is above his ~4.8% norm — expect it to fall.
57 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.277
lg avg .315 ▼−.038vs his norm —xwOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
90 / 160 PA
wOBA.306
lg avg .315 ▼−.009vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
90 / 200 PA
Strikeout %27.8%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+5.8%vs his norm —
90 / 60 PA
Walk %8.9%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+0.4%vs his norm —Walk % is above the ~8.5% league average — expect it to fall.
90 / 120 PA
BABIP.309
lg avg .295 ▲+.014vs his norm +.006 ▲BABIP is above his ~.303 norm — expect it to fall.
57 / 800 BIP
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 8.8%→5.7%noise4 HR — Barrel% 8.8% (noise) tempered to career ~4.8% → projected 5.7%.
BABIP 0.309→0.260 regressednoise.194 AVG — BABIP 0.309 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.256 (xBA 0.203) → 0.260.
on-base + lineup16 R — his run rate over ~240 projected PA.
slugging + lineup13 RBI — his RBI rate over ~240 projected PA.
run rate / role8 SB — his steal rate (3 in 28 G) over ~240 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.