Rest of Season Projection
AaronCategoryGerrit
111K ←100
4.23ERA →4.10
1.29WHIP ←1.30
3–7W →4–9
0SV0
Current Season
AaronCategoryGerrit
64K ←12
5.55ERA →0.00
1.39WHIP →0.71
3W ←1
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Aaron Nola
- xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.30)
Gerrit Cole
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.191 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.48 is 0.48 above the ERA — regression coming
Aaron Nola: 111 K / 4.23 ERA. Gerrit Cole: 100 K / 4.10 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).