Rest of Season Projection
AaronCategoryJanson
101K ←67
4.26ERA →3.90
1.33WHIP →1.31
3–6W →3–6
0SV0
Current Season
AaronCategoryJanson
64K ←43
5.55ERA →4.80
1.39WHIP →1.30
3W3
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Aaron Nola
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.342 elevated and unstable — the 5.86 ERA overstates the damage
- xeraSIGNALbut luck-free xERA 4.35 is +0.25 vs league — the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy
Janson Junk
- xeraSIGNALskill near league average (3.90)
Aaron Nola: 101 K / 4.26 ERA. Janson Junk: 67 K / 3.90 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).