Rest of Season Projection
AaronCategoryNick
101K ←78
4.26ERA4.24
1.33WHIP →1.31
3–6W →4–8
0SV0
Current Season
AaronCategoryNick
64K ←22
5.55ERA →5.20
1.39WHIP →1.37
3W ←2
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Aaron Nola
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.342 elevated and unstable — the 5.86 ERA overstates the damage
- xeraSIGNALbut luck-free xERA 4.35 is +0.25 vs league — the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy
Nick Lodolo
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (6.13)
Aaron Nola: 101 K / 4.26 ERA. Nick Lodolo: 78 K / 4.24 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).