Rest of Season Projection
AlecCategoryAndrew
12HR ←9
40R ←36
58RBI ←36
3SB ←0
.283AVG →.314
Current Season
AlecCategoryAndrew
7HR ←1
26R ←10
38RBI ←10
2SB ←0
.281AVG →.354
What Each Player's System Trusts
Alec Burleson
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.371, +0.056 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Andrew Vaughn
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.393 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.347 is 0.066 below the surface — regression coming
Alec Burleson: 12 HR / 40 R. Andrew Vaughn: 9 HR / 36 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).