Rest of Season Projection
AndrewCategoryFernando
54K54
3.70ERA →3.68
1.24WHIP ←1.25
2–5W →3–7
1–6SV ←0
Current Season
AndrewCategoryFernando
17K →30
4.02ERA →2.19
1.28WHIP ←1.30
1W →3
1SV ←0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Andrew Alvarez
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (4.78)
Fernando Cruz
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.267 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.21 is 1.21 above the ERA — regression coming
Andrew Alvarez: 54 K / 3.70 ERA. Fernando Cruz: 54 K / 3.68 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).