Rest of Season Projection
FernandoCategoryJavier
55K ←42
3.68ERA ←3.79
1.25WHIP1.25
3–7W →4–10
0SV0
Current Season
FernandoCategoryJavier
30K ←14
2.19ERA ←5.88
1.30WHIP →1.27
3W3
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Fernando Cruz
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.267 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.21 is 1.21 above the ERA — regression coming
Javier Assad
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (5.28)
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 13% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Fernando Cruz: 55 K / 3.68 ERA. Javier Assad: 42 K / 3.79 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).