Rest of Season Projection
JavierCategoryKevin
42K ←30
3.79ERA →3.69
1.25WHIP →1.24
4–10W ←2–7
0SV →1–5
Current Season
JavierCategoryKevin
14K →19
5.88ERA →2.67
1.27WHIP →0.81
3W3
0SV →2
What Each Player's System Trusts
Javier Assad
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (5.28)
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 13% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Kevin Kelly
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.211 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.55 is 0.88 above the ERA — regression coming
Javier Assad: 42 K / 3.79 ERA. Kevin Kelly: 30 K / 3.69 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).