Rest of Season Projection
BradCategoryKevin
37K ←33
3.66ERA ←3.69
1.24WHIP1.24
2–5W →3–7
4–7SV ←1–6
Current Season
BradCategoryKevin
28K ←19
3.65ERA →2.67
1.14WHIP →0.81
2W →3
3SV ←2
What Each Player's System Trusts
Brad Keller
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (2.81)
Kevin Kelly
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.211 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.53 is 0.86 above the ERA — regression coming
Keller projects 37 K / 3.66 ERA vs Kelly 33 K / 3.69 ERA — near-identical ratios. The difference is verdict: hold versus sell-high, aligned with Kelly's win-rate regression.