Rest of Season Projection
JoséCategoryKevin
52K ←31
3.70ERA3.69
1.24WHIP1.24
1–3W →3–7
1–3SV →1–6
Current Season
JoséCategoryKevin
26K ←19
5.59ERA →2.67
1.81WHIP →0.81
1W →3
1SV →2
What Each Player's System Trusts
José Alvarado
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.426 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
Kevin Kelly
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.211 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.54 is 0.87 above the ERA — regression coming
José Alvarado: 52 K / 3.70 ERA. Kevin Kelly: 31 K / 3.69 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).