Rest of Season Projection
AndrewCategoryMichael
81K →89
4.50ERA ←5.26
1.38WHIP ←1.47
1–3W →2–5
0SV0
Current Season
AndrewCategoryMichael
43K43
5.74ERA ←7.22
1.52WHIP ←1.90
1W →2
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Andrew Painter
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.337 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
Michael Lorenzen
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.89 +1.79 vs league with no luck excuse
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Andrew Painter: 81 K / 4.50 ERA. Michael Lorenzen: 89 K / 5.26 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).