Rest of Season Projection
AndrewCategoryTyler
72K →94
4.57ERA →4.05
1.39WHIP →1.38
1–2W1–2
0SV0
Current Season
AndrewCategoryTyler
43K →57
5.74ERA ←6.04
1.52WHIP ←1.54
1W1
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Andrew Painter
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.341 elevated and unstable — the 6.21 ERA overstates the damage
- xeraSIGNALbut luck-free xERA 4.83 is +0.73 vs league — the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy
Tyler Mahle
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.05 sits 0.05 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.335 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
Andrew Painter: 73 K / 4.57 ERA. Tyler Mahle: 95 K / 4.04 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).