Rest of Season Projection
AndrewCategoryCasey
9HR →15
36R →44
36RBI →54
0SB →8
.314AVG ←.263
Current Season
AndrewCategoryCasey
1HR →12
10R →27
10RBI →33
0SB →5
.354AVG ←.289
What Each Player's System Trusts
Andrew Vaughn
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.393 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.347 is 0.066 below the surface — regression coming
Casey Schmitt
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.353, +0.038 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Andrew Vaughn: 9 HR / 36 R. Casey Schmitt: 15 HR / 44 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).