Rest of Season Projection
BenCategoryCasey
20HR ←15
70R ←44
70RBI ←54
3SB →8
.270AVG ←.263
Current Season
BenCategoryCasey
17HR ←12
44R ←27
44RBI ←33
2SB →5
.306AVG ←.289
What Each Player's System Trusts
Ben Rice
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.333 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.408 is 0.034 below the surface — regression coming
Casey Schmitt
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.353, +0.038 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Ben Rice: 20 HR / 70 R. Casey Schmitt: 15 HR / 44 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).