Rest of Season Projection
BenCategoryCurtis
20HR ←7
70R ←51
70RBI ←51
3SB →6
.270AVG ←.228
Current Season
BenCategoryCurtis
17HR ←8
44R ←26
44RBI ←26
2SB →3
.306AVG ←.250
What Each Player's System Trusts
Ben Rice
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.333 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.408 is 0.034 below the surface — regression coming
Curtis Mead
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.367, +0.052 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Ben Rice: 20 HR / 70 R. Curtis Mead: 7 HR / 51 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).