Rest of Season Projection
ChristianCategoryCurtis
8HR ←7
53R ←51
45RBI →51
8SB ←6
.210AVG →.228
Current Season
ChristianCategoryCurtis
4HR →8
21R →26
18RBI →26
3SB3
.275AVG ←.250
What Each Player's System Trusts
Christian Yelich
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.389 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.292 is 0.064 below the surface — regression coming
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 29% is stable and high — caps the floor
Curtis Mead
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.367, +0.052 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Christian Yelich: 8 HR / 53 R. Curtis Mead: 7 HR / 51 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).