Rest of Season Projection
BenCategoryJosh
20HR ←10
70R ←32
70RBI ←38
3SB →18
.270AVG →.274
Current Season
BenCategoryJosh
17HR ←6
44R ←21
44RBI ←25
2SB →12
.306AVG ←.254
What Each Player's System Trusts
Ben Rice
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.333 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.408 is 0.034 below the surface — regression coming
Josh Naylor
- xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.333)
Ben Rice: 20 HR / 70 R. Josh Naylor: 10 HR / 32 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).