Rest of Season Projection
BenCategoryLuke
20HR ←14
71R ←42
71RBI ←59
3SB ←2
.269AVG ←.237
Current Season
BenCategoryLuke
17HR ←13
44R ←22
44RBI ←31
2SB ←1
.306AVG ←.276
What Each Player's System Trusts
Ben Rice
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.333 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.409 is 0.036 below the surface — regression coming
Luke Raley
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.389, +0.074 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 32% is stable and high — caps the floor
Ben Rice: 20 HR / 71 R. Luke Raley: 14 HR / 42 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).