Rest of Season Projection
BenCategoryRafael
20HR ←15
70R ←40
70RBI ←47
3SB ←0
.270AVG ←.230
Current Season
BenCategoryRafael
17HR ←7
44R ←26
44RBI ←30
2SB ←0
.306AVG ←.251
What Each Player's System Trusts
Ben Rice
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.333 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.408 is 0.034 below the surface — regression coming
Rafael Devers
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.291 below league with no luck excuse
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 31% is stable and high — caps the floor
Ben Rice: 20 HR / 70 R. Rafael Devers: 15 HR / 40 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).