Rest of Season Projection
BenCategoryRob
20HR ←7
70R ←20
70RBI ←23
3SB ←0
.270AVG ←.168
Current Season
BenCategoryRob
17HR ←3
44R ←7
44RBI ←8
2SB ←0
.306AVG ←.117
What Each Player's System Trusts
Ben Rice
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.333 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.408 is 0.034 below the surface — regression coming
Rob Refsnyder
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.259)
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 31% is stable and high — caps the floor
Ben Rice: 20 HR / 70 R. Rob Refsnyder: 7 HR / 20 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).