Rest of Season Projection
BlakeCategoryJac
6HR →14
36R ←33
7RBI →22
7SB ←2
.233AVG →.255
Current Season
BlakeCategoryJac
1HR →6
10R →20
2RBI →13
2SB ←1
.269AVG ←.242
What Each Player's System Trusts
Blake Dunn
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.345 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.274 is 0.059 below the surface — regression coming
Jac Caglianone
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.340, +0.025 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 31% is stable and high — caps the floor
Blake Dunn: 6 HR / 36 R. Jac Caglianone: 14 HR / 33 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).