MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 20, 2026
Portrait of Brad Lord
Brad Lord
WSH · P
Change to
Burch Smith
DET · P
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Too close to call.

They split your categories 22. Take whoever fills a bigger need.

Head-to-head
K
ERA
WHIP
W
SV n/a

Brad Lord wins 2 (K, W); Burch Smith wins 2 (ERA, WHIP); SV n/a.

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Fastball Velolg 94.0 · higher = better
Brad Lord
94.5
Burch Smith
93.8
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · higher = better
Brad Lord
10.3%
Burch Smith
10.4%
Strikeout %lg 22.0% · higher = better
Brad Lord
21.0%
Burch Smith
27.4%
Chase %lg 28.5% · higher = better
Brad Lord
31.1%
Burch Smith
26.2%
Hard-Hit % Allowedlg 40.0% · lower = better
Brad Lord
40.8%
Burch Smith
47.8%
Barrel % Allowedlg 8.0% · lower = better
Brad Lord
5.9%
Burch Smith
4.3%
xwOBA Allowedlg .315 · lower = better
Brad Lord
.316
Burch Smith
.287
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · earned-run quality
ERAlower is better
Brad Lord
2.144.56
lg xERA 4.10
now 2.68
4.02
Burch Smith
2.144.56
lg xERA 4.10
now 3.18
3.70
WHIPlower is better
Brad Lord
.9001.66
now 1.00
1.31
Burch Smith
.9001.66
now 1.47
1.24

Volume · rest of season
Strikeoutshigher is better
Brad Lord
4036.60
now 31
24
Burch Smith
4036.60
now 20
20
Winshigher is better
Brad Lord
.0005.60
now 3
14
Burch Smith
.0005.60
now 0
00

SV — not applicable. Both pitch out of the rotation.

If you already own them — trade angle
Hold · steadyBrad Lord — hold.conf 0.60
Hold · wait & seeBurch Smith — hold.conf 0.50
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