Rest of Season Projection
BrandonCategoryJuan
10HR →22
49R →50
40RBI →53
7SB →9
.302AVG ←.280
Current Season
BrandonCategoryJuan
5HR →13
29R ←27
24RBI →29
4SB →5
.317AVG ←.297
What Each Player's System Trusts
Brandon Marsh
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.407 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.335 is 0.032 below the surface — regression coming
Juan Soto
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.415, +0.100 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Brandon Marsh: 10 HR / 49 R. Juan Soto: 22 HR / 50 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).