Rest of Season Projection
BrandonCategoryShohei
10HR →23
49R →58
40RBI →47
7SB →9
.302AVG ←.296
Current Season
BrandonCategoryShohei
5HR →10
29R →38
24RBI →31
4SB →6
.317AVG ←.289
What Each Player's System Trusts
Brandon Marsh
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.407 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.335 is 0.032 below the surface — regression coming
Shohei Ohtani
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.408, +0.093 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Brandon Marsh: 10 HR / 49 R. Shohei Ohtani: 23 HR / 58 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).