Rest of Season Projection
BrandonCategoryTyler
60K →94
4.28ERA →4.05
1.34WHIP ←1.38
4–8W ←1–2
0SV0
Current Season
BrandonCategoryTyler
19K →57
6.11ERA →6.04
1.64WHIP →1.54
2W ←1
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Brandon Williamson
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.268 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 6.55 is 0.44 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Tyler Mahle
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.05 sits 0.05 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.335 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
Mahle projects for 95 K vs Williamson's 61 K, and a 4.04 ERA vs 4.28 — the underlying skill favors Mahle; sell-high on Williamson, buy-low on Mahle.