Rest of Season Projection
BryanCategoryJackson
11HR →12
57R ←36
55RBI ←31
6SB →14
.254AVG ←.251
Current Season
BryanCategoryJackson
6HR ←2
39R ←13
38RBI ←11
4SB →5
.276AVG.276
What Each Player's System Trusts
Bryan Reynolds
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.365, +0.050 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Jackson Chourio
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.403 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.349 is 0.036 below the surface — regression coming
Bryan Reynolds: 11 HR / 57 R. Jackson Chourio: 12 HR / 36 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).