Rest of Season Projection
IanCategoryJackson
13HR ←12
57R ←36
45RBI ←31
3SB →14
.193AVG →.251
Current Season
IanCategoryJackson
13HR ←2
39R ←13
31RBI ←11
2SB →5
.230AVG →.276
What Each Player's System Trusts
Ian Happ
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.347, +0.032 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 32% is stable and high — caps the floor
Jackson Chourio
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.403 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.349 is 0.036 below the surface — regression coming
Ian Happ: 13 HR / 57 R. Jackson Chourio: 12 HR / 36 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).