Rest of Season Projection
BrandonCategoryBryan
10HR →12
49R →60
40RBI →58
7SB ←6
.302AVG ←.256
Current Season
BrandonCategoryBryan
5HR →6
29R →39
24RBI →38
4SB4
.317AVG ←.276
What Each Player's System Trusts
Brandon Marsh
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.407 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.335 is 0.032 below the surface — regression coming
Bryan Reynolds
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.371, +0.056 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Brandon Marsh: 10 HR / 49 R. Bryan Reynolds: 12 HR / 60 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).