Rest of Season Projection
BryanCategoryJarren
10HR →11
50R ←40
49RBI ←45
5SB →14
.254AVG ←.212
Current Season
BryanCategoryJarren
6HR →10
39R ←29
38RBI ←33
4SB →10
.276AVG ←.219
What Each Player's System Trusts
Bryan Reynolds
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.364, +0.049 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.331 sits above league and is not yet stable — expect some of the average to regress
Jarren Duran
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.295 below league with no luck excuse
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 30% is stable and high — caps the floor
Duran's 14 SB outpace Reynolds' 5, but Reynolds counters at .254 AVG versus Duran's .212. The buy/sell spread is clear: acquire Reynolds, fade Duran.