Rest of Season Projection
BryceCategoryCade
60K60
4.08ERA4.10
1.30WHIP1.30
2–5W2–5
0SV0
Current Season
BryceCategoryCade
20K ←12
1.71ERA ←5.12
0.86WHIP ←1.34
1W1
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Bryce Miller
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.226 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 1.83 is 0.50 above the ERA — regression coming
Cade Povich
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (5.20)
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Miller projects for 61 K / 4.08 ERA vs Povich's 61 K / 4.10 ERA — essentially identical. The sell-high and hold verdicts diverge, not the production.