Rest of Season Projection
BryceCategoryMatt
60K →67
4.08ERA4.09
1.30WHIP1.30
2–5W ←2–4
0SV0
Current Season
BryceCategoryMatt
20K →22
1.71ERA ←8.49
0.86WHIP ←1.71
1W1
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Bryce Miller
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.226 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 1.83 is 0.50 above the ERA — regression coming
Matt Waldron
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.78 sits 0.32 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.384 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
Bryce Miller: 61 K / 4.08 ERA. Matt Waldron: 68 K / 4.09 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).