MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Burch Smith
DET · P
Change to
Portrait of Pierce Johnson
Pierce Johnson
CIN · P
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Burch Smith.

He projects to help you in more roto categories the rest of the way — ERA. Pierce Johnson’s box score looks better right now, but the luck-stripped projection flips it.

Head-to-head
K
ERA
WHIP
W
SV n/a

Burch Smith wins 1 categories (ERA); Pierce Johnson wins 0 (none); 3 even; SV n/a.

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Fastball Velolg 94.0 · higher = better
Burch Smith
93.8
Pierce Johnson
95.6
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · higher = better
Burch Smith
10.4%
Pierce Johnson
10.8%
Strikeout %lg 22.0% · higher = better
Burch Smith
27.4%
Pierce Johnson
19.8%
Chase %lg 28.5% · higher = better
Burch Smith
26.2%
Pierce Johnson
34.1%
Hard-Hit % Allowedlg 40.0% · lower = better
Burch Smith
47.8%
Pierce Johnson
37.2%
Barrel % Allowedlg 8.0% · lower = better
Burch Smith
4.3%
Pierce Johnson
10.1%
xwOBA Allowedlg .315 · lower = better
Burch Smith
.287
Pierce Johnson
.347
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · earned-run quality
ERAlower is better
Burch Smith
2.963.95
lg xERA 4.10
now 3.18
3.70
Pierce Johnson
2.963.95
lg xERA 4.10
now 3.27
3.73
WHIPlower is better
Burch Smith
1.131.57
now 1.47
1.24
Pierce Johnson
1.131.57
now 1.23
1.24

Volume · rest of season
Strikeoutshigher is better
Burch Smith
4026
now 20
5
Pierce Johnson
4026
now 20
5
Winshigher is better
Burch Smith
.0002.80
now 0
00
Pierce Johnson
.0002.80
now 2
01

SV — not applicable. Both pitch out of the rotation.

If you already own them — trade angle
Hold · wait & seeBurch Smith — hold.conf 0.50
Hold · wait & seePierce Johnson — hold.conf 0.50
Tweet