MLB Daily DeltaWeek 19 · August 2, 2026
Portrait of Caleb Ferguson
Caleb Ferguson
CIN · P
Change to
Mike Paredes
MIN · P
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Mike Paredes.

He projects to help you in more roto categories the rest of the way — strikeouts. Caleb Ferguson’s box score looks better right now, but it’s built on luck that won’t hold.

Head-to-head
K
ERA
WHIP
W
SV n/a

Mike Paredes wins 1 categories (K); Caleb Ferguson wins 0 (none); 3 even; SV n/a.

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Fastball Velolg 94.0 · higher = better
Caleb Ferguson
92.4
Mike Paredes
93.0
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · higher = better
Caleb Ferguson
9.0%
Mike Paredes
9.6%
Strikeout %lg 22.0% · higher = better
Caleb Ferguson
19.8%
Mike Paredes
12.3%
Chase %lg 28.5% · higher = better
Caleb Ferguson
30.1%
Mike Paredes
28.5%
Hard-Hit % Allowedlg 40.0% · lower = better
Caleb Ferguson
32.9%
Mike Paredes
50.8%
Barrel % Allowedlg 8.0% · lower = better
Caleb Ferguson
4.1%
Mike Paredes
6.8%
xwOBA Allowedlg .315 · lower = better
Caleb Ferguson
.297
Mike Paredes
.349
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · earned-run quality
ERAlower is better
Caleb Ferguson
25.18
lg xERA 4.10
now 0.00
3.70
Mike Paredes
25.18
lg xERA 4.10
now 2.45
3.70
WHIPlower is better
Caleb Ferguson
.9001.66
now 0.60
1.24
Mike Paredes
.9001.66
now 1.36
1.24

Volume · rest of season
Strikeoutshigher is better
Caleb Ferguson
4038
now 6
25
Mike Paredes
4038
now 3
28
Winshigher is better
Caleb Ferguson
.000.480
now 0
00
Mike Paredes
.000.480
now 0
00

SV — not applicable. Both pitch out of the rotation.

If you already own them — trade angle
Buy LowCaleb Ferguson — buy low. The dip is a window to acquire.conf 0.76
Sell HighMike Paredes — sell high. His value is peaking; good time to trade him.conf 0.76
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