MLB Daily DeltaWeek 18 · July 23, 2026
Portrait of Caleb Ferguson
Caleb Ferguson
CIN · P
Change to
Nick Davila
SEA · P
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Too close to call.

They split your categories 11, 3 even. Take whoever fills a bigger need.

Head-to-head
K
ERA
WHIP
W
SV

Caleb Ferguson wins 1 (K); Nick Davila wins 1 (SV); 3 even.

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Fastball Velolg 94.0 · higher = better
Caleb Ferguson
92.4
Nick Davila
94.9
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · higher = better
Caleb Ferguson
9.3%
Nick Davila
7.2%
Strikeout %lg 22.0% · higher = better
Caleb Ferguson
22.0%
Nick Davila
10.2%
Chase %lg 28.5% · higher = better
Caleb Ferguson
32.2%
Nick Davila
30.1%
Hard-Hit % Allowedlg 40.0% · lower = better
Caleb Ferguson
34.4%
Nick Davila
24.2%
Barrel % Allowedlg 8.0% · lower = better
Caleb Ferguson
4.9%
Nick Davila
3.0%
xwOBA Allowedlg .315 · lower = better
Caleb Ferguson
.297
Nick Davila
.336
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · earned-run quality
ERAlower is better
Caleb Ferguson
25.18
lg xERA 4.10
now 0.00
3.70
Nick Davila
25.18
lg xERA 4.10
now 0.00
3.70
WHIPlower is better
Caleb Ferguson
.9001.50
now 0.60
1.24
Nick Davila
.9001.50
now 1.20
1.24

Volume · rest of season
Strikeoutshigher is better
Caleb Ferguson
4035.80
now 6
27
Nick Davila
4035.80
now 5
13
Winshigher is better
Caleb Ferguson
.000.480
now 0
00
Nick Davila
.000.480
now 0
00
Saveshigher is better
Caleb Ferguson
.0005.60
now 0
0
Nick Davila
.0005.60
now 1
14
If you already own them — trade angle
Hold · wait & seeCaleb Ferguson — hold.conf 0.50
Sell HighNick Davila — sell high. His value is peaking; good time to trade him.conf 0.95
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