MLB Daily DeltaWeek 19 · August 2, 2026
Portrait of Caleb Ferguson
Caleb Ferguson
CIN · P
Change to
Ty Madden
DET · P
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Ty Madden.

He projects to help you in more roto categories the rest of the way — strikeouts. Caleb Ferguson’s box score looks better right now, but it’s built on luck that won’t hold.

Head-to-head
K
ERA
WHIP
W
SV n/a

Ty Madden wins 1 categories (K); Caleb Ferguson wins 0 (none); 3 even; SV n/a.

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Fastball Velolg 94.0 · higher = better
Caleb Ferguson
92.4
Ty Madden
93.1
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · higher = better
Caleb Ferguson
9.0%
Ty Madden
12.8%
Strikeout %lg 22.0% · higher = better
Caleb Ferguson
19.8%
Ty Madden
27.0%
Chase %lg 28.5% · higher = better
Caleb Ferguson
30.1%
Ty Madden
31.9%
Hard-Hit % Allowedlg 40.0% · lower = better
Caleb Ferguson
32.9%
Ty Madden
31.6%
Barrel % Allowedlg 8.0% · lower = better
Caleb Ferguson
4.1%
Ty Madden
5.3%
xwOBA Allowedlg .315 · lower = better
Caleb Ferguson
.297
Ty Madden
.270
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · earned-run quality
ERAlower is better
Caleb Ferguson
25.18
lg xERA 4.10
now 0.00
3.70
Ty Madden
25.18
lg xERA 4.10
now 3.07
3.70
WHIPlower is better
Caleb Ferguson
.9001.50
now 0.60
1.24
Ty Madden
.9001.50
now 0.95
1.24

Volume · rest of season
Strikeoutshigher is better
Caleb Ferguson
4036.80
now 6
25
Ty Madden
4036.80
now 16
28
Winshigher is better
Caleb Ferguson
.000.480
now 0
00
Ty Madden
.000.480
now 0
00

SV — not applicable. Both pitch out of the rotation.

If you already own them — trade angle
Buy LowCaleb Ferguson — buy low. The dip is a window to acquire.conf 0.76
Sell HighTy Madden — sell high. His value is peaking; good time to trade him.conf 0.79
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