MLB Daily DeltaWeek 16 · July 13, 2026
Portrait of Caleb Kilian
Caleb Kilian
SF · P
Change to
Chris Murphy
CWS · P
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Chris Murphy.

He projects to help you in more roto categories the rest of the way — WHIP and wins. Caleb Kilian’s box score looks better right now, but it’s built on luck that won’t hold.

Head-to-head
K
ERA
WHIP
W
SV

Chris Murphy wins 2 categories (WHIP, W); Caleb Kilian wins 1 (K); 2 even.

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Fastball Velolg 94.0 · higher = better
Caleb Kilian
96.8
Chris Murphy
96.3
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · higher = better
Caleb Kilian
13.6%
Chris Murphy
16.3%
Strikeout %lg 22.0% · higher = better
Caleb Kilian
28.1%
Chris Murphy
21.4%
Chase %lg 28.5% · higher = better
Caleb Kilian
31.4%
Chris Murphy
29.2%
Hard-Hit % Allowedlg 40.0% · lower = better
Caleb Kilian
36.0%
Chris Murphy
34.9%
Barrel % Allowedlg 8.0% · lower = better
Caleb Kilian
8.0%
Chris Murphy
7.9%
xwOBA Allowedlg .315 · lower = better
Caleb Kilian
.296
Chris Murphy
.304
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · earned-run quality
ERAlower is better
Caleb Kilian
28.25
lg xERA 4.10
now 3.81
3.70
Chris Murphy
28.25
lg xERA 4.10
now 8.59
3.70
WHIPlower is better
Caleb Kilian
.9002.55
now 1.15
1.25
Chris Murphy
.9002.55
now 2.32
1.24

Volume · rest of season
Strikeoutshigher is better
Caleb Kilian
4038.20
now 29
23
Chris Murphy
4038.20
now 6
16
Winshigher is better
Caleb Kilian
.0005.20
now 2
13
Chris Murphy
.0005.20
now 1
14
Saveshigher is better
Caleb Kilian
.0006.60
now 3
24
Chris Murphy
.0006.60
now 1
15
If you already own them — trade angle
Buy LowCaleb Kilian — buy low. The dip is a window to acquire.conf 0.90
Hold · wait & seeChris Murphy — hold.conf 0.50
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