Rest of Season Projection
CalebCategoryJavier
36K ←35
3.71ERA ←3.74
1.25WHIP1.25
2–4W →4–10
3–6SV ←0
Current Season
CalebCategoryJavier
29K ←14
3.81ERA ←5.88
1.15WHIP ←1.27
2W →3
3SV ←0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Caleb Kilian
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.214 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.94 is 0.60 above the ERA — regression coming
Javier Assad
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (4.49)
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Caleb Kilian: 36 K / 3.71 ERA. Javier Assad: 35 K / 3.74 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).