Rest of Season Projection
CarterCategoryJonah
9HR ←6
34R ←27
38RBI ←33
0SB0
.187AVG →.221
Current Season
CarterCategoryJonah
7HR ←2
23R ←9
26RBI ←11
0SB0
.223AVG ←.197
What Each Player's System Trusts
Carter Jensen
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.270 below league with no luck excuse
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 30% is stable and high — caps the floor
Jonah Heim
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.295)
Carter Jensen: 9 HR / 34 R. Jonah Heim: 6 HR / 27 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).