Rest of Season Projection
CarterCategoryTyler
9HR →10
39R ←21
44RBI ←32
0SB0
.183AVG →.212
Current Season
CarterCategoryTyler
7HR ←4
23R ←11
26RBI ←17
0SB0
.223AVG ←.193
What Each Player's System Trusts
Carter Jensen
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.275 below league with no luck excuse
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 29% is stable and high — caps the floor
Tyler Stephenson
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.242 suppressed and unstable — dragging results below the bat
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALcontact quality already past its threshold and intact — the bat is fine
Carter Jensen: 9 HR / 39 R. Tyler Stephenson: 10 HR / 21 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).