Rest of Season Projection
CaseyCategoryKeider
76K ←67
3.74ERA →3.66
1.27WHIP →1.26
2–5W ←2–4
0SV0
Current Season
CaseyCategoryKeider
49K ←43
2.27ERA ←3.69
0.97WHIP ←1.00
2W2
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Casey Mize
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.264 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.66 is 0.39 above the ERA — regression coming
Keider Montero
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.66, 0.44 below league — production is earned
Casey Mize: 76 K / 3.74 ERA. Keider Montero: 67 K / 3.66 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).