Rest of Season Projection
CeddanneCategoryLuke
9HR →13
36R →39
36RBI →55
9SB ←2
.247AVG ←.230
Current Season
CeddanneCategoryLuke
5HR →13
23R ←22
23RBI →31
6SB ←1
.275AVG.276
What Each Player's System Trusts
Ceddanne Rafaela
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.344 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.297 is 0.048 below the surface — regression coming
Luke Raley
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.375, +0.060 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 33% is stable and high — caps the floor
Ceddanne Rafaela: 9 HR / 36 R. Luke Raley: 13 HR / 39 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).