Rest of Season Projection
ChadCategoryPaul
55K ←29
3.74ERA →3.70
1.39WHIP →1.25
2–7W ←2–5
1–5SV ←0
Current Season
ChadCategoryPaul
34K ←16
2.54ERA ←3.33
1.20WHIP ←1.44
3W ←2
2SV ←0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Chad Patrick
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.273 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.76 is 1.42 above the ERA — regression coming
Paul Blackburn
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.60)
Chad Patrick: 55 K / 3.74 ERA. Paul Blackburn: 29 K / 3.70 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).