Rest of Season Projection
ChadCategoryKeaton
56K ←32
3.73ERA →3.63
1.39WHIP →1.24
2–7W ←1–2
1–5SV ←0
Current Season
ChadCategoryKeaton
34K ←22
2.54ERA →2.45
1.20WHIP →0.90
3W ←1
2SV ←0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Chad Patrick
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.273 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.75 is 1.41 above the ERA — regression coming
Keaton Winn
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (2.40)
Chad Patrick: 56 K / 3.73 ERA. Keaton Winn: 32 K / 3.63 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).