Rest of Season Projection
ChadCategoryPaxton
55K ←44
3.74ERA →3.71
1.39WHIP →1.24
2–7W ←0–0
1–5SV ←1–3
Current Season
ChadCategoryPaxton
34K ←24
2.54ERA ←4.91
1.20WHIP ←1.36
3W ←0
2SV ←1
What Each Player's System Trusts
Chad Patrick
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.273 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.76 is 1.42 above the ERA — regression coming
Paxton Schultz
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (4.32)
Chad Patrick: 55 K / 3.74 ERA. Paxton Schultz: 44 K / 3.71 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).