Rest of Season Projection
ChaseCategoryJuan
33K →46
3.70ERA3.71
1.24WHIP ←1.26
2–6W ←1–2
0SV →3–6
Current Season
ChaseCategoryJuan
20K →30
2.33ERA ←6.00
0.93WHIP ←1.70
2W ←1
0SV →3
What Each Player's System Trusts
Chase Shugart
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.244 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.49 is 1.16 above the ERA — regression coming
Juan Mejia
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.372 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
Chase Shugart: 33 K / 3.70 ERA. Juan Mejia: 46 K / 3.71 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).