Rest of Season Projection
ChaseCategorySam
34K →44
3.70ERA →3.68
1.24WHIP ←1.25
2–6W ←1–3
0SV →1–3
Current Season
ChaseCategorySam
20K →26
2.33ERA ←2.49
0.93WHIP ←1.07
2W ←1
0SV →1
What Each Player's System Trusts
Chase Shugart
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.244 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.48 is 1.15 above the ERA — regression coming
Sam Moll
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.213 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.33 is 0.94 above the ERA — regression coming
Chase Shugart: 34 K / 3.70 ERA. Sam Moll: 44 K / 3.68 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).